Many pro-bettors around the world recommend the use of the Kelly Criterion or a modified version of it. This isn't a strong nursery and. 55)-0. Kelly Strategy Bet Calculator. The Kelly Criterion. 000. Example of Kelly Criterion in Horse Racing. The most common form of value betting calculator. L. By three laps. b = the decimal odds – 1. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. while reducing volatility. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th March 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. com. I would like to use Kelly Criterion but I do not manage to use it at more bets at the same time. Back Test your. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. Betting 5000 times may be unrealistic for most. 66% of your bank. Let us recall the basic elements of Kelly's horse race model []. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. View the Betslip. In as vivid a display of a horse seizing defeat from the jaws of victory as one will ever see, Harper's Brook pulled himself up in front, slowing right down and allowing Gloire D'athon to beat him. Horse Racing Tips: Faith in Fanshawe's Willem for Wednesday 18/1 Kempton double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Ryan Moore: River Tiber holds leading claims in my Friday three; Horse Racing. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Based on this equation and outcome, you should only be wagering 10 percent of your bankroll on the proposed wager. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your. Where a bet has two outcomes (either losing the stake or winning the stake multiplied by the odds offered by the bookmaker or casino), the Kelly bet is as shown in the formula above…. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. The Real KC is very useful for outright betting as shown. 10. 00. You think the horse has 50% of winning. Serial Winners. We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. A. His original formulas dealt with long-distance telephone transmission signal to noise ratios. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. WITH KELLY. we will be breaking down everything you need to know about the Kelly criterion betting system and how you can use it to enhance your betting system and strat. Timeform best bets. 71% of your capital, or $57. Kelly Criterion Horse Racing example. If 3 bets were made every week, it would take The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. 50 ($1250 x 25% = $312. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. By inputting the odds, the probability of the event occurring and your betting balance, you will be able to. 1. [Read more…] about The Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained. 2 Kelly gambling In Kelly gambling, we place a xed fraction of our total wealth (assumed positive) on nbets. Kelly, Jr in 1956. Few people know racing or betting better than Tony Calvin and so we asked our lead tipster on how he makes the game a. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. This works out at: (0. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. All of the major. Just as it is for sports bettors, poker players or horse racing bettors, following a practical money management plan is one of those things. More. This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. . Whenever the question of optimal betting size pops up in handicapping or money management books, you usually see Kelly. 45)/1=0. It was believed earlier that winning a bet is. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy created by J L Kelly, a scientific researcher, back in 1956. Thorp. Regarding traditional betting against bookmakers, on sports and horse racing, there is a lot of mythology and not much hard data on long-term success of professional gamblers. If we replace them in the formula, here’s what you get. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Ahead of race day revisit some great memories and test your knowledge by taking the Betfair Chase Quiz. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. For any queries relating to Betting. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. Get the best bets for this Saturday's horse racing at Ascot and beyond from tipsters Kevin Blake, Tony Calvin, Kate Tracey and Timeform. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. German Bundesliga. This is of paramount importance. K. Enter the probability (%), which represents the likelihood of winning the bet. Knappers Hill (Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden) Unbeaten in bumpers, including a Grade 2, and stretched unbeaten record to 5 with novice hurdle wins in. 5 decimally), the equation gives you (((40*2. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid. Satiate should go close in this restricted $5k claimer on the main track. 75 in addition to your stake of $57. Golf. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. With less than a week to go until this year's Cheltenham Festival, we caught up with. . The average stride length across the horse population is 24. Fractional Kelly betting The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerHorse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. 33pts. 1 – 1. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. Use the Right Formula. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. 20. 0. It doesn’t take asymmetric utility into account. The Kelly criterion is one model of investment money management, but it’s not the only one. The Kelly criterion: exploiting favorable bets and the stock market In many ways this is my favorite topic to talk about. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday. The Kelly Criterion is designed for value betting systems. To see the Kelly formula in action, let’s take an example of a football match where the odds available on the draw are 3. It can also be a. , a physicist and information theorist who worked at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a punter does. Using the Kelly Calculator The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Abstract and Figures. Make the most of horse racing. Six-year-olds have won 11 of the 17 renewals which is clearly, a significant trend. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. You can find these same numbers in the image above, and the Kelly Criterion Formula expresses it as follows: (0. Lose weight. Vanessa Ryle, Tony Calvin Kevin Blake, Dan Barber and Barry Orr discussed all five glorious days of racing and covered everything you need to know from Tuesday's starting stalls to the finish line. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. This. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. It allowed gamblers to increase the size of their winnings over a long period of time. 20 or 20%. Mochkovitch. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. After John L. The King George V Handicap (15:05) is always a very tough contest to decipher that is chock-full of promising three-year-olds with scope to improve over this longer. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. Blackbow - 14:00 Naas. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. We will show why that holds, but our main goal is to explain the full version. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. J. From this calculation, if you were to bet on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, the Kelly Criterion suggests you should only bet 4% of your bankroll or capital. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Timeform's Tony McFadden highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each Way selection at the Curragh on Sunday. a. 60 x 1. The Kelly criterion, which was first published in 1956, was soon adopted by gamblers who were able to use the formula for horse racing. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. This post will serve as the first of a series to discuss the Kelly criterion. Kelly Criterion's model is based on a mathematical formula developed by this author in the mid-1950s. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1;. In an example in which you think a horse should be 6 to 4 (40% chance of winning) and its odds are 5/2 (or 2. Kelly Criterion recommend risking 6% of your. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. The Kelly Criterion only works if one has an advantage over the game they are playing. e. T&Cs apply. If the dice bias were less, at 53%, the Kelly criterion recommends staking 6%. It can therefore be applied equally well in American football, soccer and horse racing markets, to name just three. Kelly criterion can generate an optimal bidding fraction (MacLean et al. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other "bets," including blackjack. 16) of our free Excel betting. 48) / 1 = 0. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Previously he had competed in a couple of good races at York and his trainer Geoff Oldroyd. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. This is a mathematical formula which tells you how much to bet in any given situation. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. He developed the formula to maximize the long-term growth rate of capital when making bets with a. CURRENT BALANCE: Insert your current betting balance BOOKMAKER ODDS: The odds you want to back YOUR ESTIMATE (%): Your estimated probability of the selection winning FRACTIONAL KELLY BETTING (FKB): Choose between 0. 04. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Rugby World Cup Final. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. 16 August 2023. Discover. Cricket. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. The online Kelly criterion calculator determines a recommended stake based on the prevailing odds and your estimated probability that the selection will win. This concept goes back to the days of horse racing, where there were. Kelly Jr. provide sports betting tips, news and analysis for Australian punters. Premier. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. The two-year-old races at Royal Ascot are always a source of great excitement and expectation amongst both the racing and bloodstock fraternities. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Gordon set for winners in Fontwell Saturday 8/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 22/1 Bird. 40) / 1. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closer10 March 2021. Duhallow Tommy (Ire) 11st 9lbs. B = 1 (decimal odds of 2. Its status is as prominent as "rotation matrix" in the field of digital lotto. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. The main goal of the Kelly Criterion strategy is to maximise your profits and minimise the downside (risk associated with your betting). The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. Choose your own Horse Racing bet to boost by claiming a MyOddsboost token. 6%) but your estimate of the ‘true’ probability of the draw is 30%. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. horse racing, basketball, and football. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK. Horse Betting 101 Edit. Already the winner of 17 races - including the Stewards' Cup in 2020 and the Group 3 Abernant Stakes in 2021 - Summerghand lines up here under a 5 lb penalty for his York effort and seems sure to. In order to use it, your selection process must be able to identify the expected probability of your horse winning. România. The most common form of value betting calculator. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. Football. Take your pick! Download Kelly Criterion Calculator. Netherlands v Republic of Ireland: Both teams to score as ROI promise to have a go. Our bet increase will be 2% of that 25% profit ($250 x 2% = $5), so our previous bet amount of $20 will increase by $5, thus, $20 + $5 = a new bet size of $25. I think he was right. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. Without this component, it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a bettor does. You just can't bet at that level. Kelly described the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. My first selection is Alligator Alley who currently props up the betting as. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide. The latter corresponds to a specific allocation of the gambler's capital on the M horses: if we denote by C t the gambler's. Cricket. The horses rated in that sweet spot in this year's race amount to. By three laps. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. The best staking plan debate. The Kelly Staking Formula. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins. while reducing volatility. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. g. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. Here at Betting. 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 25/1 Pride to spring a surprise at Lingfield; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back 20/1 shot to tear it up at Cheltenham on. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Are you open to new opportunity?- 15:00: No bet. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. Featured Horse Racing. g. Horse Racing Tips. The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Here’s. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ; More Horse Racing Tips. 13 March 2021. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. She. 7 7/2 when they made their hurdling. 00 being returned. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. If you’re looking to maximize investment returns, perhaps you should think like a gambler. THE KELLY CRITERION IN BLACKJACK, SPORTS BETTING, AND THE STOCK MARKET by Edward O. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. Kelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. It is a simple…Whether you’re looking to back winners, find each-way value picks or place multiple bets, Betting. Charlie Deutsch. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to be staked on each wagering event. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. 04. What the Kelly Criterion does is help you decide the perfect level of stake by. Eat healthy. 52x1 – 0. The 20/1 21. 55)-0. I therefore recommend using the more sophisticated generalised Kelly Criterion wherever possible as it is superior to the simplified Kelly Criterion. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. Suppose you are betting on a horse race event at the Cheltenham Hurdle, and the odds offered for your horse in a race is 5. Premier League. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. 1-p)The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. The Dewhurst at 14:00 had 33 entries on Monday morning but we are down to 12 now. Heva Rose had some fairly useful form over hurdles and fences when trained in France but she has failed to make an impact over hurdles since joining. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. Staking and the Kelly Criterion. It functions as an investment scale, balancing the equity between risk and reward. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. The sum of positive trade amounts divided by the sum of negative trade amounts. 45) – 0. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. Cricket. it did not take long for the gambling community to further develop the formula to apply it to horse racing. O. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. Applying the Kelly criterion without. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. Racing Results & Replays. This is due to the requirement that the gambler commits to a specific outcome of the team game. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. Golf. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Tony Calvin has been in the racing and tipping business for over 25 years, encompassing a 12-year stint at the Racing Post and an 11-year spell as Head Of Media at Betfair. Rugby Union Tips. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). 55) / 1. He was sired by Sebring out of the Bite The Bullet mare Mica's Pride. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. A positive percentage implies an. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. Cheltenham NAP - 16:00 - Back Brechin Castle. Thorp is the real deal, but he's not talking about horse racing. Introduction In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;More Betfair. For any queries relating to. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L. e. Kelly Criterion General Discussion : Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion: Kelly Criterion. She slips back. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. The famous Kelly betting criterion (Kelly, 1956), which maximizes a logarithmic utility function, is widely used to choose s. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. 00 – 1) f* =0. A more general problem was considered in. The second is the approach of Markowitz’s Modern portfolio. Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal. Venetia Williams. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: . In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. 33pts. A horse doesn't have to have won last time out but it's significant if that horse ran well enough in either a good staying handicap chase or over this course and distance. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. 60 – 0. Kelly Jr. Jacot+1. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. 4 feet, with elite performers such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and. It can also be a. The best staking plan debate. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money. 50. This paper informative post shows the results of using Kelly criterion in a gamble of bidding T steps, and derives the relation of profits between using p and W/T as the winning probability in the Kelly formula, respectively. distributions are fi xed in advance. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. Brechin Castle (Ire) B. We denote the fractions as b2Rn, so b 0 and 1Tb= 1, where 1 is the vector with all In its simplest possible form, the Kelly Criterion states that, on an even money bet, the percentage of the bankroll to bet is: (Win probability x 2) - 1. Betfair column. Featured Horse Racing. Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of McCain's unexposed chaserHorse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. 73 feet. 40) / 1 = 0. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. 6 (60% chance of success). 5/2. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. 20 by 2, and you get . Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. 33). a. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. Introduction. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other “bets,” including blackjack, sports betting, and playing the stock market. Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. When we bet the amount that this formula indicates, we say that we are using the full Kelly Criterion . In general, such replacement of population parameters. They Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine how much of your money to place on a particular gamble. NAP. Kelly Criterion. What this means is that you should wager 10 units (or 10% of your bankroll) on this coin toss. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. 45)/ (2. I think he was right. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. What the Kelly Criterion does is help you decide the perfect level of stake by.